The unpredictable hurricane
The last 48 hours have been a time of changing reality as experts try to predict what Hurricane Florence will do. Here's a short synopsis.
Two days ago, when I wrote my first blog about the storm, dominant predictions said the hurricane would hit on the southern North Carolina coast and sweep to the north and west. Those predictions called for a storm moving at a reasonable pace. It would travel through the center of North Carolina, and the most damaging rains would fall in the mountains of western Virginia. That track would have little effect on Upstate South Carolina, the area where we live. We might get an inch or two of rain.
That call for apparent safety didn't last long. The dominant predictions changed and called for a western surge through North Carolina, in large part sparing the Virginia mountains. The effect on our area raised somewhat from only minimal rain and wind to 3 to 5 inches of rain and winds of more than 30 mph.
That prediction also didn't last long. Now they believe the hurricane might go crazy when it hits land. One prediction model says Florence will hit in southern North Carolina, then go back out to sea and bounce its way down the South Carolina coast. It might sweep inland through South Carolina, or it might go as far south as Savannah, Georgia, before turning inland. That will devastate large sections of the coast, hammering areas such as Wilmington,and Wrightsville Beach, N.C., Myrtle Beach, Charleston, and Hilton Head Island, S.C., and Savannah.
The effects on the Upstate vary based on the actual storm track. A hurricane that swings directly through South Carolina will mean more rain and higher winds, maybe as much as 5 to 8 inches of rain and winds about 50 mph. A track through Savannah sounds as if it would lessen our chances for severe effects, but the opposite might be the case. If the main part of the storm goes to the south of us, that puts us into the more dangerous north and east part of the storm. That's where the conditions are best for producing tornadoes. South Carolina gets a few tornadoes, but all have been minor compared to the monsters that ravage the Midwest. How much tornado action will be spawned? That's unknown, which joins the legion of uncertainties for us.
We are stocked up with food, water and ice. Our cars' gas tanks are full or half-full. We don't have any plans for weekend trips. The utilities in our subdivision are underground. We can ride this storm out. We ask prayers that our people and our woodlands are safe and secure.
It's time to wait and see.
Two days ago, when I wrote my first blog about the storm, dominant predictions said the hurricane would hit on the southern North Carolina coast and sweep to the north and west. Those predictions called for a storm moving at a reasonable pace. It would travel through the center of North Carolina, and the most damaging rains would fall in the mountains of western Virginia. That track would have little effect on Upstate South Carolina, the area where we live. We might get an inch or two of rain.
That call for apparent safety didn't last long. The dominant predictions changed and called for a western surge through North Carolina, in large part sparing the Virginia mountains. The effect on our area raised somewhat from only minimal rain and wind to 3 to 5 inches of rain and winds of more than 30 mph.
That prediction also didn't last long. Now they believe the hurricane might go crazy when it hits land. One prediction model says Florence will hit in southern North Carolina, then go back out to sea and bounce its way down the South Carolina coast. It might sweep inland through South Carolina, or it might go as far south as Savannah, Georgia, before turning inland. That will devastate large sections of the coast, hammering areas such as Wilmington,and Wrightsville Beach, N.C., Myrtle Beach, Charleston, and Hilton Head Island, S.C., and Savannah.
The effects on the Upstate vary based on the actual storm track. A hurricane that swings directly through South Carolina will mean more rain and higher winds, maybe as much as 5 to 8 inches of rain and winds about 50 mph. A track through Savannah sounds as if it would lessen our chances for severe effects, but the opposite might be the case. If the main part of the storm goes to the south of us, that puts us into the more dangerous north and east part of the storm. That's where the conditions are best for producing tornadoes. South Carolina gets a few tornadoes, but all have been minor compared to the monsters that ravage the Midwest. How much tornado action will be spawned? That's unknown, which joins the legion of uncertainties for us.
We are stocked up with food, water and ice. Our cars' gas tanks are full or half-full. We don't have any plans for weekend trips. The utilities in our subdivision are underground. We can ride this storm out. We ask prayers that our people and our woodlands are safe and secure.
It's time to wait and see.
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